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Table 3 shows the basic parameters of the study to the year 2050. The range of global energy demand for 2050 in these scenarios is from 1065 EJ to 600 EJ, and the "middle course", which the authors consider more pragmatic, has a value of 850 EJ. More recently, the International Energy Agency (IEA) concluded that a "Business-As-Usual" forecast for global energy consumption gives a virtually linear increase to 615 EJ in the year 2020 [10] (IEA, 1998). If this were continued to 2050, the resulting global energy demand would be 855 EJ.

International co-operation will be necessary to organize the resources to achieve success. The nuclear power reactor industry of the next century will have to be a global enterprise, in line with other large scale industrial activities. 7. CONCLUSION As a result of population growth and economic growth, global energy demand is likely to increase over the next half century to about 1000 EJ, between two and three times today's level. At the same time there will be mounting concern over controlling the release of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.

If this were continued to 2050, the resulting global energy demand would be 855 EJ. Table 4 shows the results of these studies and projections for the years 2020 and 2050. Thus, regardless of how one examines the future prospects, and how the energy is distributed, it seems that the global demand by the mid-21st Century will most likely be of the order of 850-1070 EJ, unless constrained by government action, such as taxes or other CO2 constraints. That is nearly three times as much as the world uses today.

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A H Grebe HS-4 Receiver

by Richard

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